Australian and New Zealand vehicle fleets may be at the start of a period of significant change due to the emergence of Automated, Connected and Electric Vehicles as well as new models of vehicle ownership and use. To inform its research programs and decision-marking by member transport agencies, Austroads commissioned forecasts to explore the likely adoption of certain vehicle technologies within the vehicle fleets of 2030 in Australia and New Zealand. These forecasts have since undergone the first of intended periodic reviews and have been extended out to 2031. The forecasts found that the adoption of each of the technologies would take place over an extended period and that different technologies were at different stages of the adoption process. The forecasts are purely forecasts, not combined with consideration of impacts of technology adoption. This approach assisted a purity of focus on what appears likely to occur, rather than introducing any bias as to what might be desirable. Technologies such as Active Safety Systems are well progressed in adoption and although Electric Vehicle technologies are not as well progressed, they appear to be following a clear adoption pattern. Highly Automated Driving is anticipated to feature in only a small number of vehicles within the forecast period (e.g. 2030-2031). The project also explored differences between Australia and New Zealand, passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, and cities and regional areas.

Transoptim Consulting: Andrew Somers